Ontario's fall economic statement projects a deficit of $16.9 billion for 2026–27, up $3.1 billion from the province's budget. The government now expects the return to a balanced budget to slip to 2029–30, when it forecasts a surplus of $0.2 billion. The province is citing trade uncertainty, weaker growth and lower revenue forecasts as the main reasons for the revised outlook.
The statement projects deficits of $12.7 billion in 2027–28 and $6.7 billion in 2028–29. Revenues for 2026–27 are now $2.0 billion above budget, but the government has cut its revenue forecasts by $3.9 billion for 2027–28 and by $4.9 billion for 2028–29. It has also raised the Contingency Fund by $3.8 billion to cover trade-related risks.
Economic growth is expected to slow in 2026. Real GDP growth is forecast at 0.5 per cent, down from the 1.0 per cent projected earlier, before recovering to 1.5 per cent in 2027, 1.8 per cent in 2028 and 2.0 per cent in 2029. Employment fell by 53,000 in the first quarter of 2026 and rose by 62,000 in the second quarter. The unemployment rate is projected to decline from 7.2 per cent to 6.1 per cent by 2029.
On debt, the province expects debt servicing costs to rise from $17.4 billion to $20.4 billion by 2028–29. Net debt is forecast at 37.4 per cent of GDP, below the province's 40 per cent target. Net debt relative to revenue stands at 210 per cent, above the 200 per cent target, while interest costs equal 6.7 per cent of revenue, under the 7.5 per cent ceiling.
The government says it has delivered nearly $30 billion in tariff relief and support since April 2025. Priority sectors include the auto, steel and forestry industries. The statement also points to Buy Ontario procurement rules, efforts to reduce internal trade barriers and a proposed 10-year defence industrial strategy. The government targets 43,000 new jobs and more than $6 billion in GDP by 2035, although those goals are not confirmed.
The province's 10-year capital plan totals $210 billion, with $37 billion allocated in 2026–27. It includes Highway 413, the Bradford Bypass and roads serving the Ring of Fire mining region, as well as the transfer of the Gardiner Expressway and Don Valley Parkway to provincial control. Major transit projects include the Ontario Line and the Scarborough and Yonge subway extensions.
Spending on workforce and health is also rising. The province has committed $1.7 billion to add 70,000 college and university seats, and its Skills Development Fund has supported more than 1,000 projects. Health spending is projected at $100.7 billion in 2026–27, and a $3.4 billion Primary Care Action Plan aims to improve access to family doctors by 2029.
The forecasts depend on U.S. tariff policy and broader global trade conditions, and the government acknowledges they sit slightly below private-sector projections. Any shift in those conditions could change the deficit, growth and revenue figures set out in the statement.
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